Warsh Wasn't Always Mum on Forecasts

沃什并非总是对预测保持沉默
导读

《华尔街日报》经济版:现任美联储主席凯文·沃什不愿对利率表态,但他的历史预测与会议记录揭示了真实想法——以及他与同事们的深刻分歧。

《华尔街日报》经济版 | 作者 Leo | 168 词 · 难度 ★★★★☆ 美联储主席凯文·沃什的预测记录:现任不愿表态,但他的历史预测与会议记录揭示了真实想法——以及他与同事们的深刻分歧。

第一段:沃什的经济预测记录

“Fortunately, there is a trove of evidence on exactly how he thinks, if you know where to look.”

英文原文 Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's reluctance to signal where interest rates are headed has left the world unsure just how he thinks about the economy or inflation. Fortunately, there is a trove of evidence on exactly how he thinks, if you know where to look.

中文翻译 美联储主席凯文·沃什不愿就利率走向释放信号,这让全世界不确定他对经济和通胀究竟如何看待。所幸,如果你知道去哪里找,有大量关于他真实想法的证据。

长难句解析 结构拆解:评注性状语 Fortunately(幸运的是);存在句 there is a trove of evidence;介词短语 on exactly how he thinks(关于他究竟如何思考);宾语从句 how he thinks;条件状语从句 if you know where to look;不定式短语 where to look 作 know 的宾语。翻译要点:Fed Chairman 美联储主席;reluctance to signal 不愿释放信号;interest rates 利率;left the world unsure 让全世界不确定;just how he thinks 他究竟如何思考;trove of evidence 大量证据;if you know where to look 如果你知道去哪里找。

固定搭配

▪be headed — 朝…方向前进;例:The company is headed toward bankruptcy without reforms.
▪leave sb. unsure — 让某人不确定;例:The vague statement left investors unsure about the company's plans.
▪a trove of — 大量的;例:Archaeologists discovered a trove of ancient artifacts in the tomb.
▪how to look — 如何寻找;例:Let me show you how to look for information online.

第二段:美联储任职期间的预测

“As a Federal Reserve governor from 2007 through 2011, Warsh submitted projections every quarter for growth, unemployment and inflation, alongside his colleagues on the committee that sets interest rates.”

英文原文 As a Federal Reserve governor from 2007 through 2011, Warsh submitted projections every quarter for growth, unemployment and inflation, alongside his colleagues on the committee that sets interest rates. The forecasts became public only years later, by which point he had left the central bank.

中文翻译 作为2007年至2011年间的美联储理事,沃什每季度都与他所在的制定利率委员会的同事们一起提交有关增长、失业和通胀的预测。这些预测在多年后才公开,而那时他已经离开了这家中央银行。

长难句解析 结构拆解:时间状语 As a Federal Reserve governor from 2007 through 2011;主语 Warsh;谓语 submitted projections;频率状语 every quarter;内容介词短语 for growth, unemployment and inflation;伴随状语 alongside his colleagues;后置定语 on the committee;定语从句 that sets interest rates。翻译要点:Federal Reserve governor 美联储理事;from 2007 through 2011 2007年至2011年;submitted projections 提交预测;every quarter 每季度;alongside his colleagues 与同事们一起;the committee that sets interest rates 制定利率的委员会;became public 公开;by which point 而那时;central bank 中央银行。

固定搭配

▪submit to — 提交,呈递;例:All employees must submit their reports to the manager by Friday.
▪alongside with — 与…一起;例:She worked alongside with experienced colleagues on the project.
▪leave the bank — 离开银行;例:After 20 years, he finally left the bank to start his own business.
▪become public — 公开,公之于众;例:The investigation's findings became public last month.

第三段:美联储政策分歧与通胀担忧

“He thought the crisis, along with government policies he considered unfriendly to growth, had durably raised unemployment, which therefore wouldn't hold prices down to the degree his colleagues believed.”

英文原文 Those projections, and accompanying transcripts, show a policymaker whose views on inflation diverged from his colleagues as the 2007-09 crisis receded. Other officials saw 9% unemployment as slack that would keep prices down. Warsh took a different view. He thought the crisis, along with government policies he considered unfriendly to growth, had durably raised unemployment, which therefore wouldn't hold prices down to the degree his colleagues believed.

中文翻译 这些预测以及随附的会议记录显示,在2007-2009年金融危机逐渐消退之际,这位政策制定者在通胀问题上的观点与同事存在分歧。其他官员将9%的失业率视为会抑制物价的闲置资源。沃什持不同观点。他认为,危机以及他所认为的不利于增长的政府政策,已经持续推高了失业率,因此无法像同事们所相信的那样抑制物价。

长难句解析 结构拆解:主句 He thought;宾语从句 the crisis had durably raised unemployment;伴随状语 along with government policies;定语从句 he considered unfriendly to growth;非限制性定语从句 which therefore wouldn't hold prices down;程度状语 to the degree his colleagues believed。翻译要点:accompanying transcripts 随附的会议记录;policymaker 政策制定者;diverged from 与…存在分歧;as the 2007-09 crisis receded 随着危机消退;saw...as... 将…视为…;slack 闲置资源;keep prices down 抑制物价;took a different view 持不同观点;unfriendly to growth 不利于增长;durably raised 持续推高;to the degree 达到…程度。

固定搭配

▪diverge from — 与…存在分歧,偏离;例:The two candidates' views on tax policy diverged sharply.
▪see...as — 将…视为;例:Many people see social media as a waste of time.
▪along with — 与…一起,以及;例:The hotel offers a gym along with a swimming pool.
▪to the degree — 达到…程度;例:The project succeeded to the degree that everyone expected.

考研 / 四六级重点词汇

▪reluctance /rɪˈlʌktəns/ n. 不情愿,勉强 — 释义:unwillingness to do something;考点:考研阅读高频词;搭配 reluctance to do sth.(不愿做某事);派生词 reluctant(adj. 不情愿的);例句:His reluctance to answer questions raised suspicions among journalists.
▪inflation /ɪnˈfleɪʃn/ n. 通货膨胀 — 释义:a general rise in prices in an economy;考点:考研超高频词(经济学核心);搭配 inflation rate(通胀率)、control inflation(控制通胀);派生 inflate / inflationary;注意与 deflation(通缩)、stagflation(滞胀)区分;例句:The central bank raised interest rates to combat high inflation.
▪diverge /daɪˈvɜːdʒ/ v. 分歧,偏离 — 释义:to be different from something or each other;考点:考研阅读高频词;搭配 diverge from(与…不同/偏离);派生 divergent / divergence;注意与 emerge(出现)、converge(汇聚)区分;例句:Their opinions on climate policy diverge significantly.
▪durably /ˈdjʊərəbli/ adv. 持久地,持续地 — 释义:in a way that lasts for a long time;考点:经济学类文章;派生自 durable(adj. 持久的);durable goods 耐用消费品;例句:The pandemic has durably changed the way people work and shop.

全文概括

中文段落大意:第一段沃什不愿就利率表态,但有大量历史证据可揭示其真实想法。第二段沃什在2007-2011年任美联储理事期间每季度提交增长、失业和通胀预测,这些预测在多年后才公开,而他那时已离开央行。第三段会议记录显示,危机消退时沃什对通胀的看法与同事存在分歧——其他官员认为9%失业率会抑制物价,沃什则认为危机与不利政策已持续推高失业率,无法像同事预期那样抑制物价。

英文全文总结 The article examines Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's past economic forecasts and policy views. It begins by noting Warsh's current reluctance to signal his views on interest rates, but points out that his previous projections as a Fed governor from 2007 to 2011 offer valuable insights into his thinking. These projections, which became public years after he left the central bank, reveal his divergence from colleagues during the 2007-09 financial crisis. While other officials viewed 9% unemployment as sufficient to keep prices down, Warsh believed the crisis and growth-unfriendly policies had durably raised unemployment, making it less effective at controlling inflation than his colleagues assumed.

打卡作业

任务:请翻译以下划线句,重点关注"名词性物主代词作主语 + 定语从句 + 时间状语从句"这一政策评论文复合句结构。

“Those projections, and accompanying transcripts, show a policymaker whose views on inflation diverged from his colleagues as the 2007-09 crisis receded.”

💬 在评论区留下你的翻译,下期公布参考答案!

上期回顾

上期划线句:Pontifical clarity is blurring with alarming speed. 参考翻译:教皇的明确立场正以惊人的速度变得模糊。 要点:Pontifical clarity 教皇的明确立场(指教皇在通谕中的明确观点);blurring 现在进行时,表示正在发生的趋势,译为"正在变得模糊";with alarming speed 方式状语,译为"以惊人的速度";alarming 译为"惊人的/令人担忧的";整句反映教皇关于AI意识的立场正被现实快速模糊的现状。

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作者 / Leo
来源 / The Wall Street Journal
2026-08-24
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